hms iron duke

hms iron duke

Thursday 10 July 2014

President Putin Means What He Says


Alphen, Netherlands. 10 July.  On 1 July President Putin laid out Russia’s foreign and security policy priorities to Russian ambassadors and Heads of Mission at a closed door meeting in Moscow.  Three themes stood out: the primacy of the Russian national interest, a specifically Russian interpretation of international law and a new European security order.  Does President Putin mean what he says? 

President Putin has repeatedly expressed his world view in open fora over many years.  And yet neither American nor European leaders have appeared to have believed him.  Indeed, the only leader who has confronted Putin of late has been Canada’s Prime Minister Stephen Harper.  As for the rest of the West the response to Putin’s clearly stated view of the Russian national interest has always been one of denial.  No wonder the man is frustrated.

As early as 2007 at the Munich Security Conference Putin accused the United States of seeking world domination. “What is a unipolar world? No matter how we beautify this term, it means one single centre of power, one single centre of force and one single master”.  In 2008 speaking in St Peterburg Putin laid out the principles of Russia-centric European security, “Firstly, not ensuring one's own security at the expense of someone else's. Secondly, not undertaking action within military alliances or coalitions that would weaken overall security. And thirdly, not expanding military alliances at the expense of other members of the treaty.”  At the 2008 NATO Bucharest Summit President Putin told a stunned US President George W. Bush that, “…Ukraine is not even a country.  What is Ukraine?  Part of it is in Eastern Europe.  The greater part of it is a gift from us [Russia]”. 

In other words President Putin has been entirely consistent both in his world view and in his determination to pursue the Russian national interest in that context.  Which makes Putin’s 1 July statement all-the-more concerning.  Whilst Putin’s statement by and large re-confirmed then President Medvedev’s 2008 Sochi statement entitled “Five Principles of the New World Order” it was the tone of the language and the up-shift in ambition that was striking.

Putin used strong language to reinforce the lengths Moscow will go to assure its interests and ‘protect’ those who regard themselves as Russian, including the use of “self-defence”.  Putin also blamed the US and the EU for forcing Russia to intervene in Ukraine, although he was careful not to include certain European countries in his condemnation. 

Putin implied that American-led “deterrence policy” was a continuation of the Cold War. He told the assembled Russian ‘dips’ that Moscow would never have “abandoned” Crimea to “nationalist militants” or allowed NATO “to change” the balance of power in the Black Sea.  He also continued with his now well-established theme that the United States seeks global domination.

Critically, President Putin reinforced his commitment to a new European security order by seeking to further divide an already weak and divided Europe.  He blamed President Poroshenko for the breakdown of the ceasefire in Ukraine “in spite of the best diplomatic efforts of Russia, Germany and France”.  He also accused the US of “blackmailing” France with penalties against its banks and linked Washington’s actions to France’s intentions to sell Mistral assault ships to the Russian Navy. 

Putin also revealed a long-standing and apparently genuine frustration over what he sees as US hypocrisy.  Russia, Putin asserted, sought the mandatory application of international law “without double standards”.  In real-speak this means no action without a UN Security Council mandate, over which of course Moscow has a veto. 

President Putin also emphasised the continued expansion of Russia’s armed forces and the reinforcement of Moscow’s efforts to strengthen its sphere of influence as part of a new balance of power. With Moscow now spending 20% of all public funding on defence and with expenditure planned on Russia’s armed forces of some $700 billion by 2020 it is at the very least important that President Putin’s is listened to with care.  

To such a policy end Moscow would also seek to exert influence over states in the former Soviet Union and beyond through the Commonwealth of Independent States, a Eurasian Economic Union and the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation.

So what does President Putin want?  Putin understands power, weakness and opportunity.  The aim of his strategy is twofold.  First, the decoupling of the US (and to a lesser, less important extent the UK) from the security of Continental Europe.  Second, a new European security order built on a Russian-French-German alliance that excludes the US and UK.  Given Germany’s strategic ambivalence towards the US as evidenced by the latest spying scandal and the damage done by Edward Snowden President Putin also believes now is the moment to act.

Does President Putin mean what he says? Oh yes.  He always does - for good and ill.

Julian Lindley-French

Tuesday 8 July 2014

NATO: Why the Wales Summit Must be Strategic and Ambitious


Alphen, Netherlands. 8 July.  Machiavelli wrote, “All courses of action are risky.  So prudence is not in avoiding danger (it is impossible) but calculating risk and acting decisively.  Make mistakes of ambition, not mistakes of sloth. Develop the strength to do things, not the strength to suffer”.  NATO leaders will meet in September in Wales in what is the most important Alliance gathering since the 1991 London Summit in the immediate aftermath of the Cold War. 

In 1991 they met to consider the implications of peace in Europe.  In 2014 they will meet to consider the profound and dangerous implications of the rapid shift in the global balance of power away from NATO’s member nations.  This summit will very quickly reveal whether there is sufficient unity of purpose amongst Alliance leaders to generate ambition and if they are big enough to distinguish between long-term strategy and short-term politics.  

The stakes are very high.  London in 1991 set the future orientation of the Alliance right up to 911.  In spite of the grand language of a Europe “whole and free” which set the course for NATO and EU enlargement there was an implicit question in London that has come to define the Alliance over the ensuing years, how little can be spent on defence?  Through the Wars of the Yugoslav Succession in the 1990s, the Kosovo war, 911, Afghanistan, Libya and elsewhere Europeans have been unwavering in their collective belief that whatever happens they will spend less on defence.  It is political dogma that was strengthened by the 2008 financial crash and the Eurozone crisis that has driven Europe’s retreat from strategic realism.  It has also fostered the appeasement of reality and a “we only recognise as much threat as we can afford” culture amongst leaders.

With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the creation of the Islamic State on NATO’s strategic doorstep and the steady march of the Islamist anti-state, Iran and its nuclear ambitions, the rapid rise of strategic China, proliferation of destructive technologies across the world and a range of other potential threats it is clear that such self-deluding dogma must be challenged.  Indeed, with NATO leaving Afghanistan the twenty-first century is finally beginning for the Alliance in Wales.  Therefore, the Wales Summit should be the place where NATO properly and finally begins to prepare for the global Cold Peace that is being inexorably fashioned beyond Alliance borders in the battle between a West that is no longer a place but an idea and the new forces of intolerance and expansionism.

The first casualty of the Cold Peace is the assumption that the Americans will always be able to defend Europe irrespective of Europe’s own defence.   Indeed, a if not the central issue at Wales should be the fashioning of a new twenty-first century transatlantic security contract founded on two principles of political realism.  First, NATO Europe can no longer play at Alliance.  The vital need for the United States to maintain credible influence and deterrence in Asia, Europe and the Middle East means that Europe’s defence can only be assured in the first instance by Europeans able and capable of acting autonomously in and around Europe.  Second, a total security concept will be needed.  All security and defence tools from intelligence to armed force, civil and military must be fashioned to prevent conflicts upstream but also to engage in conflict if needs be when, where and how it happens. 

That means forces and resources shaped to face the world as it is not as leaders would like to be.  Therefore, if London was the defence premium summit Wales must be the defence re-engagement summit built on the principle that “security and defence matters”. 

My latest report for Wilton Park, a conference and research centre close to the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office entitled “NATO’s Post 2014 Strategic Narrative” was published last week (https://www.wiltonpark.org.uk/conference/wp1319/).   The report argues that NATO is entering a new and unpredictable era as the Alliance shifts from campaigns and operations to strategic contingencies.  The word ‘strategic’ is the key as it means big and that implies ambition, forces, resources and a fundamental change of mind-set on the part of political leaders.

There is no doubt that prior to Russia’s annexation of Crimea the Wales Summit would have been little more than a glorified photo op.  Leaders would have somewhat disingenuously declared “mission accomplished” in Afghanistan.  Some thought would have been given to the preservation of military interoperability between Alliance forces and some declaration made about NATO’s Open Door and future membership and partnerships.

Now the Wales Summit must begin NATO’s search for the answer to five twenty-first century strategic questions which finally operationalise the 2010 NATO Strategic Concept and the three core tasks of collective defence, crisis management and co-operative security. How can NATO provide credible collective defence to its members?  What type of reassurance can NATO provide to both members and partners?   What support can NATO realistically offer to states on its margins?  What relationship should now be sought with an assertive Russia?  What more can NATO allies do to support the US in its global mission and at the same time ensure and assure security and defence in and around Europe?

In other words Wales must answer THE pivotal question; what is NATO for now?  Answers on a postcard please.


Julian Lindley-French

Friday 4 July 2014

HMS Queen Elizabeth: Power, Unity, Alliance and Partnership


4 July.  Der Tag.  HMS Queen Elizabeth is enormous.  Officially named today by Her Majesty the Queen after her illustrious sixteenth century forebear she is the largest warship ever built for the Royal Navy.  She sits in her Rosyth dock against the backdrop of the massive Forth Railway Bridge itself a signature British engineering marvel from a previous age.  Displacing 65,000 tons the ‘QE’ is the first of Britain’s 2 new super aircraft carriers.  Her flight deck is the size of 60 Wimbledon tennis courts or 3 World Cup pitches.  When commissioned in 2017 she will carry up to 50 aircraft in a hangar that is the size of 60 Olympic-size swimming pools.  She is twice the width and some 90 metres longer than her predecessor HMS Illustrious which sits alongside her.  
   
HMS Queen Elizabeth is also far more than a ship.  She is a potent symbol of British power, unity, alliance and partnership that will fly the White Ensign the most famous flag of the most famous navy in the world.  Indeed, a navy that in many ways made the modern world.  In tandem with her sister-ship HMS Prince of Wales she will act as a hub for a new type of agile and mobile global reach military power projection that will assure and ensure maritime and land security across the globe. 

HMS Queen Elizabeth will exert influence and effect across three strategic spaces – the peace-space, the security-space, and the battle-space.  Able to reach 80% of the world’s population she will act in crises as diverse as disaster relief and help prevent and deter full-blown war which cannot be ruled out in the hyper-competitive twenty-first century.  

HMS Queen Elizabeth is a symbol of national unity.  She was built in sections at 6 shipyards across the United Kingdom.  Indeed, she is perhaps the most innovative ship ever built with each section bought to Rosyth to be welded together.  As some in Scotland contemplate secession she is a potent symbol of what this old great gathering of peoples can still achieve in the world together. 

HMS Queen Elizabeth is a symbol of alliance.  She is testament to Britain’s determination to inject real power into both NATO and the EU.  As Americans complain about burden-sharing or the lack of it here is a European ally that in spite of many challenges is willing to invest in the highest-end of high-end military capabilities.  Alongside the new Type 45 destroyers and Astute-class nuclear attack submarines joining or soon to join the Royal Navy this great ship will put Britain at the heart of NATO and EU task groups.  Indeed, her very existence will underpin all the navies across both the Alliance and Union.

HMS Queen Elizabeth is a symbol of partnership.  Britain made an historic mistake in the early 1970s by focusing exclusively on Europe and what became the EU. Whether Britain stays or leaves the EU this ship will help re-invigorate Britain’s traditional partnerships with countries like Australia, India and Japan (see history).  She will also help reinforce key partnerships with close, powerful friends such as France and Germany.  Critically, she will help keep America strong where America needs to be strong as Washington faces a growing gap between what it needs to be able to do and what it can afford to do. To that end HMS Queen Elizabeth will be a vital partner of both the United States Navy and the United States Marine Corps.

My belief in HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales has been absolute from the day they were conceived.  This is not simply because of the power projection or fighting power the two ships will afford London or the Carrier-enabled Power Projection in the strategy-documents, or indeed because I favour the Royal Navy over the British Army or Royal Air Force.  I do not.  As I write in my new book Little Britain (www.amazon.com) my belief in these ships is because of what they say about Britain and its future as a major power.  This has nothing to do with Britannia ruling the waves but rather the willingness of a twenty-first European state to confront political realism with imagination and determination built on the recognition that credible military capability still underpins all power and influence.  

HMS Queen Elizabeth is a national strategic asset.  She is an entirely appropriate statement of strategic ambition for one of the world’s leading political, economic and military powers and will serve Britain and its allies and partners out to 2060 and beyond.  As such she will help reinvigorate the British strategic brand critical to keeping the West strong – the West that is today an idea rather than a place.  

HMS Queen Elizabeth is a symbol of my country; a ship and a country of which I am justly proud.  HMS Queen Elizabeth is a big-picture ship of a big-picture country in a big-picture world.

Julian Lindley-French



NATO's Post-2014 Strategic Narrative: New Lindley-French Report

Dear Friend and Colleague, you can download my new report entitled "NATO's Post-2014 Strategic Narrative" at https: //www.wiltonpark.org.uk/conference/wp1319/ or go to the Wilton Park website at  www.wiltonpark.org.uk.  The report was published yesterday by Wilton Park.  All best, Julian

Wednesday 2 July 2014

NATO: Why Burden-Sharing is Self-Interest


Alphen, Netherlands. 2 July.  US Secretary for Defense Chuck Hagel said of America’s allies recently “…lopsided burden threatens NATO's integrity, cohesion and capability - and ultimately, both European and transatlantic security…We must see renewed financial commitments from all NATO members.”  Sir Adam Thomson, Britain’s Ambassador to NATO rammed that message home at an event at the Institute of European Studies in Brussels on Monday.  Most NATO Europeans simply do not get just how much the strategic landscape will change over the next decade and the extent to which the American conventional deterrent is facing a profound crisis. 

Indeed, many Europeans seem to think that somehow NATO will continue with business as usual. and that the Americans will go on essentially paying for European defence whilst Europeans go about fixing their Euro-ravaged economies at their political leisure.  It is as though Europe’s defence has somehow become detached from the rapidly-shifting global strategic balance.   One would have thought Russia’s aggression in Ukraine would have been seen as a symptom of this shifting balance.  Instead it is being conveniently finessed away in many chancelleries as a ‘one-off’ that was not really Russia’s fault.

The reality of strategic change should also have been made clear by the decision yesterday by Japan to abandon the principles of self-defence which have driven Tokyo’s defence policy since World War Two.   Japan understands perfectly that it needs to enhance its defence effort to enable the American conventional deterrent to remain credible in East Asia.  By 2020 the US will cut its defence expenditure by more than the entire annual expenditure of Europeans on defence.  Given that both Europeans and Japanese live in rough neighbourhoods soon the Americans could simply be unable to provide credible conventional defence for both Europe and Asia-Pacific without allies that can first respond to crises in their backyards.  

Much is being made of the agreement that all NATO nations should spend a minimum of 2% GDP on defence.  The target is of course nominal and pedants will point out that it is not actually a binding commitment.  Moreover, whilst four NATO Europeans currently spend the magical 2% and some four more are making the effort to get there one of those states is Greece (which is both worrying and uplifting given how broke the Greeks are) and some of the rest of deploying that most devastating of defence weapons – creative accountancy.

In fact the point of the 2% target is to get NATO’s many “one-percenters” to stop killing NATO.  Sadly, not only do most of the “one-percenters” spend too little on defence they also spend badly.  Another key target is that at least 20% of the budget should be spent on defence investment.  Several Europeans spend as low as 5% on the future force which is creating a dangerous so-called interoperability gap within the Alliance.

Ambassador Thomson said the US and UK “are leading the charge” to get allies to spend more and spend better.  However, even the UK which makes much of its spending 2.4% of GDP on defence is guilty of fiddling the figures.  The Financial Times recently ran a report that British defence spending would soon fall to 1.9% GDP. 

Furthermore, this Friday will see the launch the first of two brand new super-carriers the HMS Queen Elizabeth.  She will operate the vertical take-off version of the Joint Strike Fighter (F-35B) rather than the conventional version. This decision was made to save enough money on construction of the ship to allow her sister ship HMS Prince of Wales to also be commissioned into the Royal Navy.  And yet in spite of Britain’s commitment to the 2% target “pour encourager les autres” London seems to have gone soft on the second carrier.  This now leaves open the possibility that the second ship will be sold once complete after the British 2015 General Election.

Let me be blunt; if a British Government were to sell a brand new state of the art super-carrier to a foreign power it would kill Britain’s case for enhanced defence investment across the Alliance.  It would also have a devastating impact on Britain’s influence and reliability in Washington both of which are still in intensive care after the 2010 Strategic Defence and Security Review.  These two ships are more than ships; they are statements of British and European ambition to support the US world-wide if needs be in future conflicts.  Given these ships will be supporting the Alliance well into the 2060s to abandon HMS Prince of Wales would be mad, short-term accountancy at the expense of sound long-term defence strategy.

Interestingly, an academic from one of the “one-percenters” challenged me over my assertion that if they are not prepared to spend 2% GDP on defence then they will be forced to consider defence integration and the loss of national sovereignty.  He was trying to trip me up and not for the first time.  Surely, he suggested, the bigger states should lead the way towards defence integration.  My response was twofold.  First, many of the “one-percenters” refuse EITHER to increase or enhance their defence spending OR consider common funding let alone defence integration.  As such they are simply not facing strategic reality.  Second, how can they be trusted as allies?  Too many of the “one-percenters” refuse to share the point of contact with danger on operations with the likes of the US and UK claiming “can’t do, won’t do”. 

The 2% target is a political target.  If achieved it would send a message that Europe still believes in the Alliance and is prepared to invest in it and the twenty-first century transatlantic strategic security and defence compact upon which NATO is founded.  If Europeans demur then one day they could awake to find Americans simply cannot defend them even if they wanted to.  It is for that reason that burden-sharing is simply self-interest because the cost of Europeans defending themselves would be very much higher.

And one final thing; if I hear one more bloody diplomat (not Sir Adam) say that talk of NATO’s demise is again premature I will be, er well, undiplomatic!


Julian Lindley-French

Monday 30 June 2014

Berlin, Brussels and Europe’s Peripheral Fission


Brussels, Belgium. 30 June.  Last week was a big week; Jean-Claude Juncker was imposed by Germany as European Commission President and a landmark free trade deal was signed between the EU and Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine.  It also marked the true birth of Berlin-Brussels as a power.  This morning Berlin is desperately trying to pour balm on troubled British waters but it is too late.  Taken together the three events crystallise the new power reality of Europe in which there is a consolidating core centred upon Germany and the EUrozone and a periphery comprised of Europe’s strategic losers - Britain, Russia and Turkey.
 
At the core of the core is Berlin-Brussels or B-Squared (B2).  I could call it an ‘Axis’ but modern Germany is not old Germany and I will not fall into the history trap.  As of Friday Europe’s periphery now includes Russia, Turkey and Britain all three of which were once core powers but are now very much on Europe’s/Germany’s periphery.

Let me take Britain first.  No-one should under-estimate the structural fracture that took place Friday between the EUrozone (the real EU) and Britain.  This morning Berlin is desperately trying to pour balm on troubled British waters but it is too late.  In fact, the British now find themselves in the most invidious of positions with the relationship between costs and benefits absurdly perverse.  The British people pay over €6bn per annum for membership of a club over which it has no influence and which does it more harm than good in terms of imposed regulation and lost national sovereignty. 

Then there is Russia.  Moscow reacted with predictable fury at the signing of the partnership agreements in Brussels last week with much talk of dark “consequences” and even “Nazis”.  For the Russians this accord is but the latest sign that the EU is challenging what Moscow believes to be the Russian sphere of influence. Moscow also sees the EU as less institution devoted to preventing extreme state behaviour and ever more a ‘state’ with its own interests and thus a threat to Russia.  To the Russian strategic mind all and any states must seek a sphere of influence and in Europe given history it must be at Russia’s expense.  Indeed, to Moscow many Central and Eastern Europeans have simply swapped the Red Star for the Yellow Star. 

Turkey is another matter entirely.  For almost fifty years the EU and its many precursors have been implying eventual Turkish membership and Ankara has pretended to believe them.  This promise has led Turkey to orient its foreign and security policy towards Europe and to slowly align its constitution and governance with the ‘democratic values’ EU membership demands. The game is now up.  Turkey will never be offered EU membership and now knows it.  Germany and France do not want it and in any case the cost of enlargement to Turkey is too much and Prime Minister Erdogan knows that too.  That is why Ankara is pursuing an increasingly robust domestic policy and an ever more autonomous and assertive foreign policy that looks south and east not just west.

But here’s the rub.  Whereas Moscow, Ankara and to a very much lesser extent London still think in terms of a classical balance of power B2 sees power in much more in terms of the balance of money.  When Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine sign accords with the EU they do so partly to escape Moscow’s influence.  Equally, they do so also in the belief that eventual EU membership is implied and along with with it the bucket-loads of European taxpayer’s cash needed to save their basket-case economies. 

However, it is precisely the issue of money where the B2 strategic calculus falls apart. The sums simply do not add up.  There are only ten countries that actually pay for the EU, three of which are so deeply in debt (France and Italy) they they are or soon will be net recipients and another Britain could well soon leave.  Merkel advisor Michael Fuchs said this morning that a Brexit would be a disaster.  What he means specifically is the loss of British taxpayer’s money.  

Therefore, either an intolerable European ‘tax’ will need to be imposed on the German, Danish, Dutch, Swedish et al taxpayers or B2 will fail .  In other words, it will be impossible for Berlin-Brussels to continue to pay “mountains of gold” to ‘transfer junkies’ such as Poland, save the Euro and EUrozone banks AND pay for membership aspirants such as Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine.  Europe’s defence has already been sacrificed so maintain the illusion of a Europe that can afford both to widen and deepen. 

Sooner or later the promise of EU membership and the oodles of European cash that goes with it will dry up and disappointment will set in.  At that point Russia’s influence will increase sharply and with it Moscow’s ‘interference’.

Europe’s peripheral fission has profound implications for the transatlantic relationship.  Indeed, such fission will undermine not only the EU but also NATO and in time render the Baltic States in particular indefensible in the face of a Russia that is likely to become more aggressive not less so.  That is what a political settlement between B2 and Britain is so important.

There is a further danger; the eclipsing of German leadership.  If push comes to shove German leadership is vastly preferable to some form of falsely-democratic federal Europe and yet that is precisely the battle to come at the heart of B2.  At some point Juncker will likely defy Berlin.  He will claim that his nomination and confirmation as European Commission President by the European Parliament establishes the ‘political legitimacy’ for the transformation of the European Commission into a European Government.  Indeed, he will claim a solemn duty to represent the ‘will’ of Europe’s peoples vested in him even if they did not actually vote for him.  At some point B2 will collapse and a Europe the sum of which is already less than the sum of its parts on the world stage will fall apart.  Germany will at some point have to make some hard choices.

Britain, Russia and Turkey may not appear to have much in common on the face of it.  However, all three are profoundly unhappy with their respective relationships with B2.  For its own sake Berlin must move to end Europe’s peripheral fission.


Julian Lindley-French

Friday 27 June 2014

What are you going to do now Berlin?


Bucharest Airport, Romania.  27 June.  It is not my normal practice to devote three blogs in one week to the same subject.  However, when a development takes place that justifies a third missive I will so do from time to time.  Yesterday I had a very constructive conversation with a senior German who clearly understands the gravity and the implications of Jean-Claude Juncker’s disastrous appointment as European Commission President which will be confirmed in Brussels today.

There is much talk of Cameron’s ‘failure’ but this is a political disaster of Germany’s making. Chancellor Merkel is the real author of this mess.  She has demonstrated herself to be unreliable, irresolute and all too willing to impose German domestic politics on the rest of Europe.  Worse, she has been aided and abetted by the appalling lack of backbone by the political invertebrates/amoeba who claim to 'lead' other EU member-states.  Many of them are quietly and equally concerned by the Juncker appointment but switched sides the moment Merkel wobbled in the face of an assault by Bild.

True to form I have just heard the new Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb calling for Britain to “wake up and smell the coffee” and be more ‘pragmatic’. That is Euro-speak for the abandonment of all political principle and the unquestioning acceptance of all and any Brussels diktat.  Stubb, who I know, suggests that the EU is good for Britain.  What are you putting in your coffee, Alexander?  A report out today by respected think-tank Civitas demonstrates that there are few economic benefits for the UK from EU membership and there has not been for a long-time. 

Stubb went on to warn of a complete shut-out from the EU market if Britain left the EU.  Not only would that be illegal it reflects the just how dishonest EU leaders are at such moments.  Take Liberal Democrat and Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander. As Cameron left for Ypres this week he cited a Treasury (Finance Ministry) report claiming the loss of three million jobs should Britain leave the EU.  This was an extreme scenario cited in the report.  Sadly, the use of false statistics typifies the method of federalist’s like Alexander who seek to mask their true political ambitions.  In fact Danny Alexander used to be the leader of a group called Young European Federalists something which he now tries to hide from the very people he is seeking to con.  

Over coffee here at Bucharest Airport my German colleague conceded to me that this is a very dangerous moment.  However, he also said rightly that very few Germans want either an EU Government or a German Empire.  Indeed, not one sensible German with whom I have spoken recently wants either.  Most of them would rather England won the World Cup than, although the likelihood of an EU Government is the greater.

One reason that this has happened is that European leaders have not had an honest conversation with each other about the finalité of the EU in Euro-speak.  It is a conversation that is urgently needed.

My proposal will infuriate smaller EU member-states but then again Luxembourgeois Juncker’s pending appointment is but the latest piece of EU small state tyranny.  However, it is vital the leaders of Britain, Germany, France and Italy sit down and discuss both the limits of ‘Europe’ and a programme of real reform rather than the pretend ‘thing’ that will emerge today.  In any case other leaders have simply demonstrated the EU’s “and me too” tendency – whatever Germany wants goes.

The first aim of such a chat would be to establish the nature and extent of the disagreement between the big four member-states.  Talking to my German colleague my sense is that in fact whilst disagreements about the role and size of Brussels do exist they really are not that great. 

Equally, if as a result of this debate there is indeed an enormous gap in both ambition and principle between Britain, France and Germany then at least leaders can begin to start considering sensibly the practical nature of a changed British relationship with the EU. 

The Juncker appointment means the EU and its member-states must finally answer the question that has been long in the making but which can no longer be fudged by ‘pragmatism’; is the EU a tight collective of partner states or a proto-European government?  My sense of my German colleague is that whilst Berlin might disagree with aspects of Britain’s position Germany still wants the former rather than the latter. If so, Berlin must say that loud and clear.  Indeed, unless an honest discussion takes place between the Big Four over the finalité politically devious federalists will continue to exploit the silence between them and we the voters will be ignored again and again.
 
This is a political mess of your making Germany.  If the EU is reduced to a tawdry debate between domestic German politicians and federalists fanatics Britain will indeed leave and rightly so.  In time the EU will fall apart as bureaucracy, false legitimacy and false democracy rot its institutions from within.  Do you want that Berlin?

As for Jean-Claude Juncker; given the more free-trade, less bureaucracy ‘reform’ agenda today being discussed by EU leaders Juncker is completely the wrong man with the wrong beliefs in the wrong job.

What are you going to do now Berlin?


Julian Lindley-French